From Keith Harwood,

There are some major earnings going on right now.  And those big earnings could set the tone for the next month or longer for the market.  Big technology companies are the focus, and they are particularly in focus because of the market structure of the indexes that follow the market.

When determining the weighting of each component of an index, there are two very common methodologies.  Many indexes are equal-weighted (meaning if the index has 100 components, each component is 1% of the holdings).  Others are market-cap-weighted (meaning each stock in the index is sized based upon how big the company is).  And with one of the main tech ETF’s, QQQ, the composition is market-cap-weighted.

So why does this matter?  Well, when a stock in the equal-weighted tech ETF QQQE releases earnings, it’s just 1% of the ETF’s performance for that day.  There will certainly be moves from correlations, but generally, the impact is less.  But QQQE isn’t the most popular tech ETF.  QQQ is significantly more popular.

When you know these key setups, spotting the lucrative Outlier trades gets crazy easy. Click here for your Outlier Roadmap.

When AAPL releases earnings this week, it’s impact will be significant as it is over 11% of the QQQ ETF.  Similarly, MSFT from last week is over 11% of QQQ.  You can see how quickly these components add up to a very significant portion of QQQ and thus can set the trend in motion for the entire ETF.

Let’s look at the components of QQQ to get a real sense of what last week and this week mean to the market:

  • Apple Inc.                                          11.90%
  • Microsoft Corporation                  11.72%
  •, Inc.                           6.41%
  • NVIDIA Corporation                       4.01%
  • Alphabet Inc. Class C                      3.94%
  • Alphabet Inc. Class A                     3.88%
  • Tesla Inc                                            2.96%
  • Meta Platforms Inc. Class A         2.72%

And now, the earnings dates for these stocks (with the stock move for those that have released their earnings):

  • Apple Inc.                                         2/2/2023
  • Microsoft Corporation                  1/24/2023                          Down 0.59%
  •, Inc.                           2/2/2023
  • NVIDIA Corporation                       2/22/2023
  • Alphabet Inc. Class C                      2/2/2023
  • Alphabet Inc. Class A                     2/2/2023
  • Tesla Inc                                            1/25/2023                          Up 10.97%
  • Meta Platforms Inc. Class A         2/1/2023

With MSFT and TSLA already announcing, almost 15% of the QQQ ETF has announced from those two companies alone.  Adding in AAPL, AMZN, GOOG, and META this week will add another 28.85% of the ETF’s components.  Over 40% of QQQ will be released, setting a potential trend in motion in spite of the fact that this is only 7 of the 100 names in QQQ.

I’m not necessarily looking to bet on earnings moves in this case as that’s a fundamental input.  But once I see the technical impact on QQQ, it can certainly set up a great new trend for tech and the market on the whole.  Confidence in tech tends to lead to confidence in the whole market, and that means I want to be watching closely for a new trend right now.

So please go to to review how I traditionally apply technical signals, volatility analysis, and probability analysis to my options trades.  As always, if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.

Keith Harwood

[email protected]

See Related Articles on

How Earnings Impact The QQQ

Chart of the Day: Lithium Americas (LAC)

Potential Profits From Robinhood Markets Inc. Move

Powerful Bull Trend for AIT Shares

A Stock To Consider Stocking Up On

TradeWins Logo
© 2022 Tradewins Publishing. All rights reserved. | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | Contact Us

Auto-trading, or any broker or advisor-directed type of trading, is not supported or endorsed by TradeWins. For additional information on auto-trading, you may visit the SEC’s website: All About Auto-Trading,
TradeWins does not recommend or refer subscribers to broker-dealers. You should perform your own due diligence with respect to satisfactory broker-dealers and whether to open a brokerage account. You should always consult with your own professional advisers regarding equities and options on equities trading.

1. The information provided by the newsletters, trading, training and educational products related to various markets (collectively referred to as the “Services”) is not customized or personalized to any particular risk profile or tolerance. Nor is the information published by TradeWins Publishing (“TradeWins”) a customized or personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or invest in particular financial products. The Services are intended to supplement your own research and analysis.

2. TradeWins’ Services are not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial products, and the Services are not intended to provide money management advice or services.

3. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Other than the refund policy detailed elsewhere, TradeWins does not make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Services. No person subscribing for the Services (“Subscriber”) should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial adviser, broker or consultant. TradeWins disclaims any and all liability in the event anything contained in the Services proves to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or results in any investment or other loss by a Subscriber.

4. You should trade or invest only “risk capital” money you can afford to lose. Trading stocks and stock options involves high risk and you can lose the entire principal amount invested or more.

5. All investments carry risk and all trading decisions made by a person remain the responsibility of that person. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or trading signals will result in profits or that they will not produce losses. Subscribers should fully understand all risks associated with any kind of trading or investing before engaging in such activities.

6. Some profit examples are based on hypothetical or simulated trading. This means the trades are not actual trades and instead are hypothetical trades based on real market prices at the time the recommendation is disseminated. No actual money is invested, nor are any trades executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. Also, the hypothetical results do not include the costs of subscriptions, commissions, or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples have not actually been executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading services in general are also designed with the benefit of hindsight, which may not be relevant to actual trading. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. TradeWins makes no representations or warranties that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown.

7. No representation is being made that you will achieve profits or the same results as any person providing testimonial. No representation is being made that any person providing a testimonial is likely to continue to experience profitable trading after the date on which the testimonial was provided, and in fact the person providing the testimonial may have experienced losses.

8. The author experiences are not typical. The author is an experienced investor and your results will vary depending on risk tolerance, amount of risk capital utilized, size of trading position and other factors. Certain Subscribers may modify the author methods, or modify or ignore the rules or risk parameters, and any such actions are taken entirely at the Subscriber’s own election and for the Subscriber’s own risk.