From Keith Harwood,

The market is not in a bull trend.  But is it in a bear trend?

When I look at the way the market is flowing, I can’t say for sure that we are in a bear market even if it feels that way after weeks of downward momentum.

The FOMC continues to raise rates, and that’s the way it has to be due to inflation, but let’s look at a few inputs to see if they have to keep raising rates, or if Evans is right that they don’t have to go so fast anymore.

First, we should look at TLT, the ETF representing the 20+ year treasury bonds:

Get Keith's Market Maker Cheat Sheet here for free!

As you can see, there has been a major downward move here, and that’s expected.  After all, bond funds need to fall when interest rates rise, and they need to rise when interest rates fall.  Even with the comments from Evans, TLT continues to fall, so the market isn’t prepared to say that he’s right that we may need to slow down on rate hikes, yet.

But, what about a big inflation marker in oil?  Let’s look at USO to evaluate that:

As you can see, oil continues to fall and show a major slowdown in inflation.  It’s not the perfect inflation metric, but it’s a pretty good indicator of where commodity prices are at right now.

Finally, we have to look at the stock market itself, and for that, I’ll look at SPY, an ETF that tracks the S&P 500:

As you can see, the market is testing the lows of June, and that could be enough to slow down the FOMC on its own as the goal is certainly not to put the economy into a major recession via rate hikes.  If the FOMC starts to see that as a likely result, I expect they will try to pump the brakes and let the market recover.

And that leads to my main trading thesis for now: rangebound markets!  We don’t have to see new lows, but we also likely won’t see new highs.  New highs might indicate the FOMC can raise rates more aggressively to continue to get back to normalcy, but new lows would indicate to them that they may have to slow down.  Instead, I’m thinking about stability in markets, tightening ranges, and generally more of a stock-pickers market.  And, while that requires a lot more work than just buying everything, it can be exceptionally profitable for the smart investor if they can find a sector that’s breaking out of the market range and then express that trading view with options.

If you’d like to learn more, please go to to review how I traditionally apply technical signals and probability analysis to my options trades.  As always, if you have any questions, never hesitate to reach out.

Keith Harwood

[email protected]

See Related Articles on

A Potentially Profitable Strategy For This Market

Lowes Companies Inc. Move Improves Profit Potential

3 Top Lithium Trades for an Accelerating EV Boom

Quick Fundamental Analysis

Great Bounce Trades

TradeWins Logo
© 2021 Tradewins Publishing. All rights reserved. | Privacy Policy | Terms and Conditions | Contact Us

Auto-trading, or any broker or advisor-directed type of trading, is not supported or endorsed by TradeWins. For additional information on auto-trading, you may visit the SEC’s website: All About Auto-Trading,
TradeWins does not recommend or refer subscribers to broker-dealers. You should perform your own due diligence with respect to satisfactory broker-dealers and whether to open a brokerage account. You should always consult with your own professional advisers regarding equities and options on equities trading.

1. The information provided by the newsletters, trading, training and educational products related to various markets (collectively referred to as the “Services”) is not customized or personalized to any particular risk profile or tolerance. Nor is the information published by TradeWins Publishing (“TradeWins”) a customized or personalized recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or invest in particular financial products. The Services are intended to supplement your own research and analysis.

2. TradeWins’ Services are not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial products, and the Services are not intended to provide money management advice or services.

3. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve substantial risk. Trading on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Other than the refund policy detailed elsewhere, TradeWins does not make any guarantee or other promise as to any results that may be obtained from using the Services. No person subscribing for the Services (“Subscriber”) should make any investment decision without first consulting his or her own personal financial adviser, broker or consultant. TradeWins disclaims any and all liability in the event anything contained in the Services proves to be inaccurate, incomplete or unreliable, or results in any investment or other loss by a Subscriber.

4. You should trade or invest only “risk capital” money you can afford to lose. Trading stocks and stock options involves high risk and you can lose the entire principal amount invested or more.

5. All investments carry risk and all trading decisions made by a person remain the responsibility of that person. There is no guarantee that systems, indicators, or trading signals will result in profits or that they will not produce losses. Subscribers should fully understand all risks associated with any kind of trading or investing before engaging in such activities.

6. Some profit examples are based on hypothetical or simulated trading. This means the trades are not actual trades and instead are hypothetical trades based on real market prices at the time the recommendation is disseminated. No actual money is invested, nor are any trades executed. Hypothetical or simulated performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. Also, the hypothetical results do not include the costs of subscriptions, commissions, or other fees. Because the trades underlying these examples have not actually been executed, the results may understate or overstate the impact of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading services in general are also designed with the benefit of hindsight, which may not be relevant to actual trading. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. TradeWins makes no representations or warranties that any account will or is likely to achieve profits similar to those shown.

7. No representation is being made that you will achieve profits or the same results as any person providing testimonial. No representation is being made that any person providing a testimonial is likely to continue to experience profitable trading after the date on which the testimonial was provided, and in fact the person providing the testimonial may have experienced losses.

8. The author experiences are not typical. The author is an experienced investor and your results will vary depending on risk tolerance, amount of risk capital utilized, size of trading position and other factors. Certain Subscribers may modify the author methods, or modify or ignore the rules or risk parameters, and any such actions are taken entirely at the Subscriber’s own election and for the Subscriber’s own risk.